Scholarly article on topic 'Integrating Disaster Mitigation Strategies in Land Use and Transport Plan Interaction'

Integrating Disaster Mitigation Strategies in Land Use and Transport Plan Interaction Academic research paper on "Economics and business"

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Abstract of research paper on Economics and business, author of scientific article — Fahmi Fahmi, Paul Timms, Simon Shepherd

Abstract Land use and transport interaction (LUTI) plan in a sustainable urban development should achieve the highest expected utility in technical, economic, environmental and social aspects for city long term strategic planning. In fact, congestion and urban sprawl, which contributes to carbon emissions, are the most problems faced by many cities worldwide. For the high-risk cities in disaster-prone area, the strategies selected in a land-use and transport plan should not only deal with the carbon emissions problem but also it should consider the possibility of disaster occurrence. This paper presents an approach of disaster mitigation strategies integration in a land-use transport plan interaction. The approach combines the disaster mitigation with conventional land use and transport strategies in order to achieve the objectives of urban risk reduction and urban transport sustainability. The possible strategies proposed then will be presented in a case study area selected, which is called as Banda Aceh Integrated land use and transport plan (BILT). The BILT approach provide the new insight in land use and transport interaction plan by breaking the trapped within the hard shell of conventional transport strategic, regarding how to make a better long term strategic planning of a high-risk city in minimizing disaster risk and achieve carbon emission reduction simultaneously in the context of urban risk reduction urban transport sustainability.

Academic research paper on topic "Integrating Disaster Mitigation Strategies in Land Use and Transport Plan Interaction"

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Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 111 (2014) 488 - 497

EWGT2013 - 16th Meeting of the EURO Working Group on Transportation

Integrating Disaster Mitigation Strategies in Land Use and Transport Plan Interaction

Fahmi Fahmia, Paul Timmsb, Simon Shepherdc*

aPh.D Student, 36-40 University Road, University of LEEDS, LS29JT, United Kingdom b'cSenior Researcher, 36-40 University Road,University of LEEDS, LS29JT, United Kingdom

Abstract

Land use and transport interaction (LUTI) plan in a sustainable urban development should achieve the highest expected utility in technical, economic, environmental and social aspects for city long term strategic planning. In fact, congestion and urban sprawl, which contributes to carbon emissions, are the most problems faced by many cities worldwide. For the high-risk cities in disaster-prone area, the strategies selected in a land-use and transport plan should not only deal with the carbon emissions problem but also it should consider the possibility of disaster occurrence. This paper presents an approach of disaster mitigation strategies integration in a land-use transport plan interaction. The approach combines the disaster mitigation with conventional land use and transport strategies in order to achieve the objectives of urban risk reduction and urban transport sustainability. The possible strategies proposed then will be presented in a case study area selected, which is called as Banda Aceh Integrated land use and transport plan (BILT). The BILT approach provide the new insight in land use and transport interaction plan by breaking the trapped within the hard shell of conventional transport strategic, regarding how to make a better long term strategic planning of a high-risk city in minimizing disaster risk and achieve carbon emission reduction simultaneously in the context of urban risk reduction urban transport sustainability.

© 2013 The Authors. PublishedbyElsevierLtd.

Selection and/or peer-review underresponsibilityof Scientific Committee

Keywords : Land use and transport interaction; high-risk city; urban transport sustainability; urban risk reduction.

1. Introduction

Unsustainable urban structure pattern in high-risk cities in the world has contributed to the increase of vulnerability to natural disaster and high transport carbon emission as a result of the increase of urbanization and motorization (APN, 2009, World-Bank, 2010). For example, urbanization in an unsustainable urban structure pattern of high-risk city to disaster has attracted many populations to reside in disaster prone area (Hamza and

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 113 343 5325; fax: +44 113 343 5334.

E-mail address: tsfa@leeds.ac.uk; P.M.Timms@its.leeds.ac.uk; S.P.Shepherd@its.leeds.ac.uk

1877-0428 © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of Scientific Committee

doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.01.082

Zetter, 1998, Kutluca and Ozdemir, 2006). These conditions are clearly visible threats that reduce the quality of life of residents in high-risk cities worldwide. In current practice, a huge disaster has forced the significant impact in land use changes of urban planning that closely related to human interaction in urban area. Nevertheless, there have been not many research on disaster and transportation issue that can be used as a basis knowledge in urban transport planning in the context of urban risk reduction and urban transport sustainability. Indeed, this issue is very important in finding the alternative strategies to reduce disaster risk of the city in the framework of urban transport sustainability. Therefore, this paper aims to present an approach of integrating disaster mitigation strategies in a land-use transport plan interaction (LUTI) of urban planning. Furthermore, the approach proposed can help to fill the knowledge gap in urban planning issue regarding urban risk reduction and urban transport sustainability. Systematically, this paper consists of several sections that presented as the logical steps regarding how the aim of research to be met. In section 2, this paper will start with the discussion of global problems in disaster-transport issues for high-risk cities and what the objectives should be achieved for those cities. After that, the methodological approach for finding generic strategies will be presented in section 3. In section 4, a case study area will be presented and the problems in the case study area selected will be described. Then, in section 5, the possible strategies that might be applied in the case study area selected will be discussed. Finally, the next step of work in this research will be explained in section 6.

2. Generic problems and objectives of high-risk city

At this time, 65% the largest cities in the world are located in the coastal area and more than 30% of the world population are residing in radius 100 miles of the coastal line area and the residents of these cities will significantly increase as a result of rapid urbanization and high growth population (World-Bank, 2010). On the other side, the rate of urbanisation is growing very fast in developing countries, especially in Asia compared to other countries. Consequently, this phenomenon gives a significant impact on the increase of carbon emission since there is strong correlation between urbanization, high traffic intensity and transport carbon emission (Barter, 1999).

In the global context of urban transport sustainability issue, a research study in sustainable development (PROSPECT) under European Commission has defined the concept of sustainable in land use and transport plan interaction that have an objective for protecting the environment for present and future generations (May et al., 2003). However, in the policy making process, the general definition above should be explored in more detail to cope the generic problems of high-risk cities in order to find the strategies that fit with the city characteristics. For these cities, the development concept of urban planning in land use and transport interaction plan should be placed in the framework of disaster mitigation and urban transport sustainability in order to reach the objectives of urban sustainable development.

3. Methodological approach for finding generic strategies

The methodological approach proposed for finding the generic strategies consists of three steps process, namely-1) setting-up objectives of the city, 2) finding possible strategies proposed in disaster mitigation and land use-transport plan, 3) combination of strategies proposed in disaster mitigation and land use-transport plan. The results of this approach then discuss in a case study area selected regarding the strategies selected that may fit with the case study area selected based on logical structure in developing in developing land use and transport strategies for urban transport sustainability (Minken et al., 2003). The problems identification of the case study was done through collecting the information about the city, which were selected as a case study area, including qualitative and quantitative data in some sources such as journal articles, research papers, government

documents, technical reports and others sources. The secondary data obtained is then analyzed to describe the city condition using analytical framework for qualitative and quantitative dataf.

3.1 Setting-up the objectives of high-risk city

Setting-up the objectives of the city is the first step that should be planned. The main priority city objectives refer to the city characteristics because every city might have different problems. For instance, the Banda Aceh city has two objectives, namely reduction of disaster risk (local action plan) and reduction of carbon emission from transport sector (national action plan). The local action plan refers to Banda Aceh urban planning (RTRW, 2009) in disaster reduction program. On the other hand, the national action plan refers to government regulation of Republic of Indonesia in greenhouse gas reduction (PP-Republik-Indonesia-No.61, 2011).

3.2 Strategies in Disaster Mitigation and Land use-Transport Plan

The strategies in land use and transport plan are directed based on the setting-up the objectives for high-risk city. All the strategies are directed to reach the objectives of the city, which has been set-up in the first part of methodological approach. The strategies selected consist of disaster mitigation strategies and strategies in land use and transport interaction.

3.2.1 Disaster Mitigation Strategies

The disaster mitigation strategies are categorized into planned-retreat, accommodation and protection and combination of planned-retreat and accommodation-protection. All of these strategies are directed to reach the objectives of city to reduce the disaster risk based on city risk mapping. Table 1 below shows the description of disaster mitigation strategies used in this research.

Table 1. Description of disaster mitigation strategies in this research

Disaster mitigation strategies Description of strategies

A Planned-retreat (land use plan A) (Classification of IPCC, 1990) • Not allowing new housing development in high-risk area.

B Accommodation and Protection (Land use plan B) (Classification of IPCC, 1990) • Allowing new housing development in high-risk area

C Combination of Strategies A and B (Land use plan C) (Added by author) • Attracting people from high risk to low risk area • Allowing residential area development for certain people

In the planned-retreat strategy (strategy A), the new housing development in the high-risk area is strictly prohibited. The most of the high-risk area are planned as green belt area by moving people that have been living there. On the other hand, in the accommodation and protection strategies (Strategy B), the high-risk areas of the city are allowed to be used as new residential area redevelopment. The people are allowed to reside in high-risk area. Consequently, all the building in this area should fulfil the minimum building construction standards in associated with disaster mitigation strategy such as building code. Moreover, in this strategy, the authority should also provide the escape routes in the case of emergency in associated with the return period of disaster occurrence. In the combination of strategies A and B (Strategy C), the high-risk areas of the city are not recommended to be used as residential area or new promoted development area. Nevertheless, this strategy only

^ In the analytical framework, the qualitative data was used to explain the significant changes in quantitative data trends in order to understand the situation and condition in the case study area selected. The interpretation of qualitative and quantitative data was used to find the strategies proposed in the framework urban risk reduction and urban transport sustainability.

allows the new housing development for certain people who work in coastal area in order to shorten the commuting distance (e.g. fisherman). However, the minimum building construction standards (e.g. building codes) for residence housing in this area should be fulfilled if this strategy is selected, similar with strategy B.

3.2.2 Land use and transport strategies

The strategies in land use and transport interaction plan (LUTI) are directed to reach the objectives of urban transport sustainability based on the objectives of the city. For instance, in the context of Banda Aceh city, this strategy has the objective to reach the target of national action plan for reducing carbon emission. Table 2 below explains the description of each strategy selected in order to reduce the carbon emission from transport sector.

Table 2. Land use and transport plan strategies in LUTI plan

Transport plan Land Use Plan Transport Plan

Improvement of Public Transport System (PT) Mobility Reduction (MR)

Land use plan Scenario Decentralized concentration (1) Attracting people to use public transport system for reducing the number of private vehicles in the transport network of the city. (3) • Encourage people to live in the sub-centres of the city (low-risk area) • Encourage people to use public transport

Centralized concentration (2) Attracting people to use public transport system for reducing the number of private vehicles in compact city model. (4) • Encourage people to live in the core area of the city • Encourage people to use public transport system rather than private vehicles

3.2.3 Combination disaster mitigation and land use-transport strategies

The combination strategies of disaster mitigation and land use- transportation plan interaction are proposed as an alternative solution to reach the objective of the high-risk cities in the framework of urban risk reduction and urban transport sustainability. All of the strategies proposed were obtained by combining disaster mitigation and land use transport strategies mentioned earlier, which are directed to reach the city objectives in urban risk reduction and urban transport sustainability simultaneously. The possible combination strategies of disaster mitigation and land use-transport plan interaction are shown in table 3.

Table 3. Combination of disaster mitigation and land use - transport plan strategies

Disaster mitigation strategies (Land-use Plan) Transport Plan

Do Nothing (1) PT (2) MR (3) Comb. (2&3) (4)

Do Nothing Scenario (A) A1 A2 A3 A4

Planned-retreat (B) B1 B2 B3 B4

Accommodation and protection (C) C1 C2 C3 C4

Combination A and B (D) D1 D2 D3 D4

4. Background problem in the case study area selected

4.1 Description Banda Aceh land use condition

After the tsunami tragedy in the last December 2004, BAPPENAS (the National Planning Development Agency, Indonesia) started to formulate a future plan for Banda Aceh city in the framework of disaster mitigation as shown in figure 1. In the blue print, the physical zoning of Banda Aceh covered conservation area, restricted development area and promoted development area. It was planned to be adjusted with disaster area characteristics include as following : (a) coastal zone (1,7), (b) restricted settlements zone (1,7,6), (c) new promoted development area (3,5,9), (d) Provincial business and administrative centre (6), (e) higher education zone (8) (BRR, 2005) as can be seen clearly in figure 1 below. The concept of this master plan was supported by JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) as a top down approach for Banda Aceh city spatial planning.

However, there were some problems at that time to be solved by the authority such as land availability, property rights, compensation cost and land acquisition issue in the new promoted development area (BRR, 2005, Nazara and Resosudarmo, 2007). After that, the Village plan concept was introduced using participatory community method as a bottom-up process planning (Matsumaru et al., 2012). Afterwards, the government decided to revoke the first master plan by allowing the residents to reside in the high-risk area. The new housing development in high-risk area was not banned. Consequently, there were many new houses that rebuilt in the high-risk area, which designated as the restricted area in the first top-down master plan (Steinberg, 2007).

4.1.1 Banda Aceh Pre-Tsunami (1985-2004)

Figure 2 shows the trend of residents in time series data from 1985-2004 based on level of risk zones classification *(JICA, 2005, BPBD, 2012). Before tsunami tragedy, majority of residents might not realize that some areas in Banda Aceh city are located in high-risk area to tsunami disaster. It caused that the high-risk areas are very attractive for residential areas since the location are located very close to the city centre. Figure 2(b) and (c) shows the quantitative evidence that the number of Banda Aceh residents in high-risk and medium risk areas increased gradually from 1986 to 2000 and it was increased steeply from 2001 until 2004, before tsunami

* Level of risk zones classification was classified by author refers to JICA studies and Banda Aceh disaster risk map.

tragedy. On the other hand, the number of residents in low risk area decreased significantly during 2000-2001 and it start to continue increasing after a year before tsunami (fig. 2(d)). The significant changes of trend during 2000-2004 occurred because there were two important events that affected the population distribution in Banda Aceh city. The first event may lead to the political situation after the fall of Soeharto regimes (Tornquist, 2011). There was a national security problem during the period of time because of long conflict between GAM (Free Aceh Movement) and the Government of Republic Indonesia during 2001 - 2004 that might affect the resident distributions in Banda Aceh city (Miller and Bunnell, 2010). The second event was the big earthquake and tsunami that hit Aceh in the end of December 2004. However, it should be noted that the event of tsunami disaster had made significant impact on peace process between GAM and Government of Republic Indonesia in Aceh (Billon and Waizenegger, 2007).

High-risk Area (Before Tsunami 2004)

I 30%-100% |

—Meuraxa (1) —Jaya Baru (2) —Kuta Raja (7)

Low-risk area (Before Tsunami 2004)

Y" -Lueng Bata (5

-Banda Raya C

Fig. 2. Number of residents before tsunami 2004 Source : (BPS, 2012)

4.1.2 Banda Aceh Post Tsunami (2005-2011)

After tsunami tragedy, people may become aware that some of sub-districts of Banda Aceh city are located in high-risk area to tsunami disaster. The low risk areas of the city, which were not attractive before the tragedy, become very expensive. Meanwhile, the high-risk areas of tsunami, which were very attractive before the tragedy, become cheaper compared to before the tragedy since the residents still remember how destructive the disaster was. Figure 3(b) shows that the high-risk areas became not attractive after two years of the tragedy, but the number of people resides in high risk area increased significantly after 2007. On the other hand, the number of residents in low-risk areas increased significantly during two years after the tragedy. However, it then decreased in the next years after.

Fig. 3. Number of residents 2005-2011 after tsunami Source : (BPS, 2012)

There were some reasons why the high-risk areas are still attractive for the residents. Some residents in high-risk area argued that they would pay high transport cost if they move to the other areas far away from their original residence before the tragedy (YAPPIKA, 2005). Furthermore, a past qualitative research reported that city residents, who were relocated to the new promoted development area, satisfied with their new residence. In contrast, they did not satisfy with the transportation services (Matsumaru et al., 2012). It might be caused by there is high accessibility in the high-risk area because of the proximity of the area with the city centre because transport services in this area were better rather than in low-risk area. On the other hand, the plan in new promoted development area was not integrated with the public transport system that may lead to high travel expenses. Consequently, this situation may attract more people to live in high-risk area since the location near to the core area of the city that has high accessibility. On the contrary, the people live in new promoted development area, which is safer to the threat of tsunami risk, may pay more expensive transport cost since the new location plan of new promoted development area is not integrated with the transport system in the framework of urban transport sustainability.

4.2 Description of Banda Aceh transport condition (1985-2012)

Currently, Banda Aceh (61.36 km2) is a medium-size city, which have 223.446 population (BPS, 2010). This city has a high level of motorization ownership since the absence of a well integrated public transport system. Table 4 shows the data of Banda Aceh transportation city statistics (DISHUB, 2011).

Table 4. Banda Aceh Transportation Statistics (2010)

No Data Items Amount

1 Modes of transport

a. car 32,077

b. Motorcycle 127,263

c. Public transport 731

d. Total Vehicle 160,072

No Data Items Amount

2 Road length (status)

National Road 18,083

Provincial Road 40,240

Local Road 707,343

3 Public transport

The figure 4(a) shows the increase of income and the number of vehicles registered from 1985 to 2012 in Banda Aceh city. Furthermore, the increase of nominal income was in line with the increase of private vehicle ownership. It can be seen clearly that the car ownership increased more approximately five and half times, whereas motorcycle ownership rose five times during 1985 to 2012. In contrast, number of public transport decreased approximately 4 times from 1985 to 2012.

Fig. 4. Number of vehicles registered and person trips by mode of transport Source : (DPKKA, 2011, Kamal, 2002, World-Bank, 2012, STTD, 2011)

The composition of trip mode choice in Banda Aceh city region in 2002 and 2011 is shown in figure 4(b). Private cars were used by 20.32%, while there were 29.22% of people that used motorcycle as the travel mode choice. Public transport was the most choice that selected by residents as their travel modes. There were approximately 39.04% of people that used public transport as their travel mode choice. 37.9% of them selected bus and minibus, while only 1.14% of them selected rickshaw as their travel mode. Pedestrian and bicycle (non-motorized) were only used by 8.9% and 2.51% of people respectively. In the next years after, the number of public transport decreased significantly from 5.504 in 2002 to only left 683 in 2012 that lead to the decrease of person trips by public transport, especially after the tsunami tragedy. A recently survey in the last two years (STTD, 2011) revealed that the choice of public transport as the mode of transport decreased approximately 30.48% from 39.04% in 2002 to become only 8% in 2011. On the other hand, number of motorcycle increased steeply by 37.36%, while the number of car only increased by 2.32% in almost a decade.

5. Alternative strategies proposed for Banda Aceh city

In Banda Aceh city, the concept of urban transport sustainability is categorized into two objectives (reduction of carbon emission and disaster risk) in the context of city long term strategic planning. The first objective has a target to reduce 26%-41% of carbon emission in the next future years of 2020 (PP-Republik-Indonesia-No.61, 2011). The second objective associated with the local action plan of local government of Banda Aceh in disaster risk reduction program (RTRW, 2009), which refer to the national action plan in disaster risk reduction (BAPPENAS and BNPB, 2006). These two objectives should be achieved simultaneously in the framework of urban risk reduction and urban transport sustainability.

In the context of city planning, both of the concepts planning of planned-retreat and accommodation-protection method have the objective to reduce disaster risk. In current practice, at the first place after tsunami tragedy, the government selected the planned-retreat as shown in master plan (BRR, 2005). However, at present time, the Banda Aceh authority has selected accommodation-protection strategy by providing escape route as an

alternative of disaster mitigation strategies. Learning from worldwide practice, both of the policies have the weaknesses. The planned-retreat policy for reducing exposure of disaster would face some problems such as the property right compensation cost, lack of financial resources (Arthurton, 1998, Rannow et al., 2010). On the other hand, the protection-accommodation policy would attract new development in high risk area, which may not be expected. For that reason, the combination strategies proposed (see table 3) may be used to find alternative strategies in order to reach the Banda Aceh city objectives in the framework of disaster mitigation and urban transport sustainability. The combination proposed approach is then called as Banda Aceh integrated land use and transport plan (BILT). The strategies in the BILT refer to generic strategies as shown in table 3 earlier that consist of four land use plans and four transport plans. Moreover, the strategies proposed in the BILT approach as follows:

1) In alternative (A), do nothing a scenario is the baseline scenario that used as the benchmark for measuring the others strategies. In this strategy, it is assumed that there is no intervention in Banda Aceh city land use and transport network.

2) In the planned-retreat of land use planning (B), the new housing development in the high-risk area is strictly prohibited. These areas area are planned as green belt area. Therefore, the new promoted development area planned will be directed to low risk zones.

3) In the accommodation-protection strategies (C), all the zones are allowed to be used as the new development area. However, the regulation of building code must be applied in this strategy5.

4) In the land use strategy D, the high-risk areas of the city are not recommended to be built as residential area. However, this strategy allows the new housing development in high-risk zones for certain people who work in coastal area in order to shorten the commuting distance. After that, all the strategies mentioned above are combined with transports strategies, namely; improvement of public transport system (2), mobility reduction (3) and combination of strategy 2 & 3 as shown in table 5 below.

Table 5. Possible strategies proposed in the BILT approach.

Disaster mitigation strategies (Land-use Plan) Transport Plan

Do Nothing (1) PT (2) MR (3) Comb. (2&3) (4)

Do nothing scenario (A) A1 A2 (Bus) A3 (Parking) A4 (Bus & Parking)

Planned-retreat (B) B1 B2 (Bus) B3 (Parking) B4 (Bus & Parking)

Accommodation and protection (C) C1 C2 (Bus) C3 (Parking) C4 (Bus & Parking)

Combination A and B (D) D1 D2 (Bus) D3 (Parking) D4 (Bus & Parking)

6. Conclusion

The approach of Banda Aceh integrated land use and transport plan (BILT) that integrates disaster mitigation strategies in conventional land use and transport interaction plan may be used an alternative to find the best strategies using LUTI model in the framework of urban risk reduction and urban transport sustainability. The next steps of this research will calibrate Banda Aceh MARS model and continue with testing the possible strategies proposed in the BILT approach. It is expected that the approach of the BILT can be used as a strategy alternative in LUTI plan issue in urban planning of high-risk city. In the global context, the BILT approach can introduce a new concept in sustainable urban development for long term strategic planning that can be applied in high-risk cities worldwide. In the local context of Indonesia, the BILT approach in Banda Aceh MARS LUTI model can support the Indonesian government to find out the right policy in order to achieve the national action plan for reducing the carbon emission from transport sector and disaster risk reduction program simultaneously.

§ Presentation of Banda Aceh major in United Nations Forum on 09 February 2010, New York; "Cities at Risk - Addressing the Challenges of Disaster Risk in Urban Setting" (TDMRC, 2011).

7. Acknowledgement

This paper is part of doctoral research at Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. The first author would like to thank to the Government of Aceh and Tony May Scholarship that has provided the financial support for this study. The author would also to thank to Prof Paul Pfaffenbichler and Prof Guenter Emberger at Institute of Transportation, Vienna University of Technology, who have given permission to use LUTI model MARS in this study to be used for Banda Aceh city.

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