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Transportation Research Procedia 17 (2016) 513 - 520
Procedia
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11th Transportation Planning and Implementation Methodologies for Developing Countries, TPMDC 2014,
10-12 December 2014, Mumbai, India
Socio Economic Valuation of Traffic Delays
Bivina G Ra, Vishrut Landgeb & Sanjay Kumar V Sc*
aM. Tech student, NITNagpur, India bAssitant Professor, NIT Nagpur,India cScientist-E1, NATPAC, Thiruvananthapuram, India
Abstract
Travel time is one of the largest categories of transport costs, and time savings are often claimed to be the greatest benefit of transport projects such as roadway and public transit improvements. Therefore the study of impact of delay at intersections in monetary terms is important. It has been a normal tendency that, when the vehicles are waiting for a 'GO' signal at the intersection, the drivers normally keep the engines of their vehicles "ON" and these results in extra fuel consumption. Small amount of fuel wasted, aggravated over number of cycles per day, number of days per month become a huge quantity. The delay time is such that the cost incurred on the travel time loss is greater as it includes travel time costs. This is an opportunity cost which also includes travel time variability losses arising from unpredictability of the journey time and vehicle operating costs which includes fuel loss that arise due to the idling of vehicles. Along with this, there is another form of cost associated, which is environmental externality. This refers to the cost due to increased emissions of pollutants due to slower speed and stop-and-go situation of the vehicles in traffic congested condition. Thus total cost incurred will be greater. This paper discusses the estimates in monetary terms, the cost of traffic delay-increased travel time, increased fuel consumption and increased pollution, taking one of the corridors in Thiruvananthapuram, the capital of Kerala, India as a case study
© 2016 The Authors.PublishedbyElsevierB.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.Org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
Keywords: Travel time costs, Traffic delay
♦Corresponding author. Tel.: +914712554467 E-mail address:biviplna@gmail.com
1. Introduction
Travel time is one of the largest categories of transport costs, and time savings are often claimed to be the greatest benefit of transport projects such as roadway and public transit improvements. Factors such as traveler comfort and travel reliability can be quantified by adjusting travel time cost values. On an average people devote 60-90 minutes a day to travel. Most people seem to enjoy a certain amount of personal travel, about 30 daily minutes, and dislike devoting more than about 90 minutes a day (Mokhtarian and Salomon, 2001)
Delay is an important measure of effectiveness in traffic studies, as it presents the direct cost of fuel consumption and indirect cost of time loss to motorists. Delay, however, is a parameter that is difficult to estimate because it includes the delay associated with decelerating the vehicle to stop, the stopped delay, and the delay associated with accelerating from a stop. This is particularly
2352-1465 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2016.11.104
true in oversaturated traffic demand conditions, where vehicles continuously decelerate and accelerate. The problems associated with vehicular traffic moving through an urban street network are numerous. In particular, as a result of the continuous increase of traffic in central urban areas, traffic queues and delays are often experienced. For any policy making process to deal with the worsening situation, it is the initial priority to estimate the impacts of traffic delay on the overall national economy in monetary terms. Besides, estimates of delay costs give the value that can be imposed on the road users which is a very effective and widely used method of traffic demand management.
With increasing delays and congestion on our nation's streets and highways, finding effective ways to maintain acceptable levels of service is critical to satisfying users as well as protecting the environment. Varieties of road based transport modes catering to the transport demand ply in large numbers on the road system. As a result traffic and transportation problems are aggravating day by day. These problems are manifesting themselves in the form of increased traffic congestion, delays and subsequently causing wastage of fuels and creation of pollution and make it a hoard of residential, commercial and business activities. Lack of proper planning and designing of intersection signals, bus bays, parking areas etc are the main reasons for the cause of delays and congestions faced by road transportation. Here comes the importance of developing methods for estimating and quantifying the amount of delay in the form of value of time, fuel cost and pollution costing.
The fuel consumption of the vehicles is increasing day by day as a result of enhanced trip lengths, personal mode of transport and congested traffic conditions. When the vehicles are waiting for their turn to cross the intersection at signals, the drivers normally keep their vehicle's engine "ON" and as a result of this, extra fuel is consumed. This small amount of fuel wasted aggregated over a number of cycles per day, number of days per year and number of intersections results in a huge quantity of fuel loss. However, the ever increasing vehicular flow is found to cause heavy delays mainly due to stoppage of vehicles during the red-phases of the signals, congestion, parking problems etc. The wastage of fuel at these various situations result in a huge amount of valuable fuel resources, and puts much strain on the need to import more precious oil resources.
Khan et al. (2013) conducted a study "Cost estimation of Traffic Congestion in Dhaka City". They defined the congestion cost as composed of mainly costs, namely, travel time costs, vehicle operating costs and externality cost due to delay and environmental damages. The time spent on travelling has an opportunity cost and is the most important item cost of the total congestion cost which also includes Travel Time Variability losses, i.e. TTV, arising from unpredictability of the journey time. The study calculated Travel Time Costs, TTC (using Value Of Time, VOT approach) and Vehicle Operating Cost, VOC, due to traffic congestion directly while it makes allowances for TTV, Dead-Weight Loss, DWL- the avoidable social costs of congestion, externality cost due to travel time delay (imposed on others) and environmental damages.
A study was conducted by Aditi Singh and P.K. Sarkar (2009) on determination of congestion cost in central business district of New Delhi. The attempt was to determine the congestion pricing in central area of Delhi that is Connaught Place with a view to ensure desired level of service. Two methods for the determination of optimal pricing were adopted. The first method was related to the point of pricing where the external costs are met by the revenue generated by the pricing level while the second method was the pricing level needed to maintain a level of service C. By using these methods, pricing for car and two wheeler motorized vehicles were determined. According to this study the pollution cost per kg was Rs 7.22.
Ingo Hansen (2001) explains the calculation of congestion costs done by applying different values of time for commuter, business traffic and freight transport. Basu and Maitra (2006) developed a Generalized Cost (GC) model of trip makers' route selection process under the effect of traffic information. The paper demonstrated a methodology for developing GC models for private car trip makers, when travel time is projected as instantaneous traffic information along with its variation level on a roadside variable message sign (VMS) board as a measure of influencing trip makers' route choice behaviour.
2. Objectives
The scope of the present study is confined to evaluation of total delay costs incurred by vehicles along a selected corridor. Plying area is an 8.05 km stretch of traffic corridor that starts from Ulloor junction to East fort bus terminal, passing through important intersections of Thiruvananthapuram, the capital city of Kerala, India. The objectives of this study included the study of delays, estimation of travel time loss during delay, quantification of fuel loss during idling, estimation of total fuel loss, estimation of pollution in monetary terms, estimation of benefits in terms of travel time savings by implementing various improvement measures, and cost benefit analysis of proposed improvement measures. The following were the tasks identified for the work:
• Estimation of travel time by different modes of transport along the selected corridors during peak and off-peak hours;
• To develop models for value of travel time and estimation of value of travel time savings;
• Estimation of Total fuel loss during delay and idling of vehicles and measurement of consequent pollutant emissions;
• Quantification of total lost time, extra fuel consumed and extra pollution;
• Cost benefit analysis of improvement measures proposed which could reduce the congestion along the stretch.
3. Methodology
The study started with the selection of study stretch followed by data collection - primary data and secondary data. Primary data collection such as speed and delay survey to estimate travel time delay along the selected corridor using floating car method, willingness to pay using questionnaire survey to estimate value of travel time savings, traffic volume survey and average passenger occupancy were conducted. Data analysis of willingness to pay survey was performed with the help of Microsoft Excel and models
are developed to estimate value of travel time (VOT). Using the VOT, cost of travel time loss is estimated. Along with that, fuel cost and pollution cost were determined from other data like volume count, speed and delay survey, emission factors etc. which gave the total monetary value of total traffic delay along the study stretch. Cost benefit analysis of one of the improvement measure (Mass transit system) has been done. The cost - benefit analysis is carried out by using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) technique to obtain the Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR %) and Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) for the proposed investments linked with the project.
4. Data collection
Primary data collection included conduct of:
• Speed and delay survey
• Willingness to pay survey
• Link volume survey
• Passenger occupancy survey
• Engine switch off behavior survey
• Classified volume count survey to determine the fuel type used
4.1 Speed and delay survey
Speed and delay survey was conducted to evaluate congestion, level of service and the deficiencies in the road network. 'Moving car observer method' (Floating car method) was used to determine the journey speeds and delays for cars. Delay for bus and two wheeler is taken as the difference between actual travel time along the study stretch for off peak and on peak hours taken manually by travelling in the corresponding modes.
4.2 Willingness to pay survey
The questionnaire for Willingness to Pay (WTP) consisted of three parts. First part consisted of demographic details like age, gender, income, education, profession etc. Second part consisted of trip details. The third part was the amount willing to pay which was a stated choice experiment. The data set contained 125 respondents. Each respondent was presented with 3 scenarios resulting in a total of 375 observations.
4.3 Link volume survey
Classified traffic volume counts were conducted at mid-sections of all the homogenous sections along the study stretch. The surveys were conducted for a period ranging from one day to three days depending on the volume of traffic.
4.4 Passenger occupancy survey
Passenger occupancy survey for bus, car and two wheeler was conducted at selected locations along study stretch.
4.5 Engine switch off behavior survey
A sample basis survey of switching off engines behaviour survey was done. This survey was conducted with an objective of estimating the effectiveness of Countdown Timers. One hour survey has been done at various locations in the study stretch.
4.6 Classified volume count survey to determine the fuel type used
A sample basis random survey was conducted along the study stretch to get the sample basis traffic volume count of vehicle (car) in order to determine the type of fuel used. 3 days - 20 minute random survey by manual observation method was taken.
5. Data Analysis
5.l Travel Time Determination
The Travel times obtained for different modes along the study stretch is summarized in Table 1. It has been found that there was a delay of bus was about sixteen minutes at junctions, eleven minutes and eight minutes for car and two wheeler respectively. The delay mainly occurred on account of waiting time for signal at the six intersections namely Ulloor, Kesavadasapuram, Pattom, PMG, Palayam and Overbridge.
Table 1: Delay of bus, car, two wheeler
Time of Survey Bus Car Two Wheeler
Travel time (min) Delay (min) Travel time (min) Delay (min) Travel time (min) Delay (min)
6-7am 14 0 12.36 0 11.02 0
7-8am 17.5 3.5 15.45 3.09 13.77 2.75
8-10am 25.61 11.62 26.21 13.85 18.08 7.06
10-11am 21.77 7.77 22.27 9.91 15.36 4.34
11-1pm 19.21 5.21 19.65 7.29 13.56 2.54
1-2pm 17.93 3.93 18.34 5.98 12.65 1.63
2-3pm 16.64 2.65 17.03 4.67 11.75 0.73
3-4pm 30.3 16.31 23.55 11.2 19.02 8
4-5pm 25.75 11.76 20.02 7.66 16.16 5.14
5-6pm 22.72 8.72 17.66 5.3 14.26 3.24
6-8pm 21.21 7.21 16.48 4.12 13.31 2.29
8-10pm 19.69 5.69 15.31 2.95 12.36 1.34
5.2 Willingness to Pay - Stated Preference Survey
A sample basis willingness to pay survey was conducted among individuals that how much amount they were willing to pay to save time. The method adopted for this study involves plotting the trade-off points and then estimating the slope and intercept of the line-of-best-fit (A.J. Richardson, 2004). The data obtained from questionnaire survey was sorted and coded. By analysing the data, it was understood that VOT of unemployed and retired people is low. VOT increases with the travel time and it changes according to the purpose of travel. It is found that, VOT for car users are higher than two wheeler users and bus users. Value of time for different modes of transport is shown in Table 3.The line of best fit was plotted with travel time cost versus travel time for the mode bus is shown in the Figure 1.
120 100 DC 80
60 40 20 0
y = 0.517x + 9.416 Q
R2 = 0.77 2 A ■■**
50 100 150 200
Travel time (min)
Fig 1: Plot of travel time Vs travel cost for bus
The equation of the line is
y = 0.517x + 9.416 (1)
Where y = Travel cost x = Travel time
VOT= coefficient of travel time (x) = 0.517 (Rs/ min) = 0.517 x 60 = 31 Rs/ hr If the travel time savings (x) was zero, the respondent would still be willing to pay Rs 9.416. The slope of the line (the coefficient attached to x) is the Value of Time (in Rs/minute). That is, the respondent would be willing to pay extra Rs 0.517 for every extra minute of travel time saving. The VOT model and VOT of each mode is given in Table 2 and Table 3 respectively.
Table 2 VOT model for different modes of transport
Mode VOT Model R2 value
Bus y = 0.517x + 9.416 0.772
Car y = 2.857x + 77.35 0.718
Two Wheeler y= 1.857x + 29.30 0.717
Table 3 Value of Time for different modes of transport
Mode VOT (Rs/Hr)
Bus 31.02
Car 172.5
Two Wheeler 111.42
6. Costing
The total delay cost is made up of different costs, primarily of travel time delay costs, fuel loss costs and emission costs. This economical analysis of traffic delay cost will inform the policy-makers in monetary terms the actual impact of the traffic congestion that the society actually bears. Also it will support further policy making processes to allocate the resources efficiently in order to control the increasing traffic demand.
6.1 Evaluating travel time delay costs
The most pronounced and also the most familiar component of the traffic delay cost is the travel time delay; commonly known as the travel time costs. The most widely used approach to estimate the associated cost is to impose the Value of Time (VOT) on the calculated delay. VOT depends on many factors, i.e. socio-economic condition of the traveller, trip purpose, condition of travel or the mode types, time of travel and there are lots of estimates available in literature regarding VOT depending on the various factors that affect VOT. Along with the travel time losses, there is another important cost arising from the unreliability or unpredictability of the journey times (mostly at peak periods of the day). This adds to the actual value of VOT.
Total travel time cost per day (TTC)i =Zi(TTD x VOT x 0 x N) (2)
Where i = Mode TTD =Travel time delay VOT = Value of travel time O = Occupancy N = Number of vehicle i
Based on the hourly traffic volume counts the travel time costing for a day along the study stretch for bus, car and two wheeler was obtained. The travel time cost worked out for cars is shown in Table 4.
Table 4 Travel time cost for car
Time Travel Time(Min) Delay (Min) Volume/hr Travel Time Cost (Rs/hr)
6-7am 12.36 0 196 0
7-8am 15.45 3.09 555 10403.3
8-10am 26.21 13.85 1109 93175.5
10-11am 22.2785 9.919 564 33934.8
11-1pm 19.6575 7.298 1052 46570.4
1-2pm 18.347 5.987 595 21609.6
2-3pm 17.0365 4.677 497 14099.3
3-4pm 23.555 11.2 639 43395.6
4-5pm 20.02175 7.662 768 35695.2
5-6pm 17.66625 5.306 673 21663.2
6-8pm 16.4885 4.129 1303 32633
8-10pm 15.31075 2.951 727 13013.3
Total cost (Rs) 366193
Similarly travel time cost for buses and two wheelers is worked out and amounted to Rs 390698 and 106816 respectively. Total travel time cost per day = Rs 863707 Total travel time cost per annum = Rs 31.52 Crores
6.2 Evaluation of fuel loss cost (FLC)
The economic loss of fuel for each vehicle was calculated by multiplying fuel loss with the prevailing cost of fuel. The idling fuel consumption of different categories of vehicles as shown in Table 5.
Table 5 Idling fuel consumption of Vehicles
Sl No Vehicle Fuel Type Fuel consumption (ml/hr) Fuel consumption (ml/min)
1 Two wheeler Petrol 178.5 2.975
2 Car Petrol 573 9.55
3 Car Diesel 705 11.75
4 Bus Diesel 930 15.5
(Source: Pal & Sarkar 2012)
FLC= Idling fuel consumption X delay X No of vehicles (3)
Total fuel loss for delay cost for bus, car and two wheeler per day = Rs 597190 i.e. about Rs 21.79 crores per annum
6.3 Evaluation of emission costs
The emission factor in vehicle (g/km) obtained from the secondary data is multiplied with the total vehicular population per day to determine the total concentration of pollutant in g/km. The value of emission factors for different vehicles is shown in Table 6.
Table 6 Emission Factors for In-use Vehicles (g/km)
Pollutant Bus Omni Bus Two wheeler Car and Jeep Taxi
CO2 515.2 515.2 26.6 223.6 208.3
CO 3.6 3.6 2.2 1.98 0.9
NOx 12 12 0.19 0.2 0.5
CH4 0.09 0.09 0.2 0.2 0.01
SO2 1.4 1.4 0.013 0.05 10.3
PM 0.6 0.6 0.05 0.03 0.07
HC 0.9 0.9 1.42 0.25 0.13
(Source: Mittal, 2003, Atmospheric Emission Inventory Guidebook, 2001, Central Pollutiion Control Board, 2000, Kandlikar, 2000)
Concentration of pollutant in g/km = Total vehicle population x emission factor (4)
Pollution cost = Concentration x delay x cost per kg of pollutant (5)
Cost per kg of pollutant is taken as Rs7.22/kg. (Source: Aditi & Sarkar, 2009) The concentration of pollutants (g/km) is shown in Table 7. The total pollution costing is shown in Table 8
Table 7 Concentration of pollutants
Pollutants Concentration of pollutant(g/km)
Bus Car Two Wheeler
CO2 2497930 3720793 547880.2
CO 17454.48 32947.99 45313.4
NOx 58181.59 3328.08 3913.43
CH2 436.3619 3328.08 4119.4
SO2 6787.852 832.02 267.761
PM 2909.08 499.212 1029.85
HC 4363.619 4160.1 29247.74
Table 8 Pollution cost incurred for different modes
Mode Pollution Cost Per Day (Rs) Pollution Cost Per Annum(Rs)
Bus 562677 205377155
Car 198038 72283808
Two wheeler 75772 27656809
Therefore total pollution cost for bus, car and two wheeler per day = 562677+198038 + 75772 = Rs 836487 The emission cost is about Rs 836487 per day and about Rs 31 Crores get wasted for traffic delay yearly. 6.4 Evaluating total traffic delay cost
Total traffic delay is the sum total of travel time cost, fuel loss cost and pollution cost.
Total traffic delay cost per day = Rs 2297384/ day Total traffic delay cost per annum = Rs 83.85 Crores / annum Even though the population of two wheelers is greater in the city, its contribution to the total traffic delay cost is much less when compared to bus and car, about Rs 8 Crores per annum. The bus contributes to the majority of traffic delay cost i.e. about Rs 40 Crores. Thus summing up the cost of all modes, the total traffic cost is coming to an amount of Rs 2297684 / day and Rs 83.85 Crores per annum.
7. Mitigation measures
Congestion on roads has been increasing due to a very rapid growth in the use of personalized vehicles leading to high consumption of fossil fuels. Various motivational measures to reduce travel time cost like bypass, flyovers, mass rapid transit systems, road widening, proper signal timings, proper road geometrics can certainly reduce congestion and thus can have savings on national economy. An illustration of the cost benefit analysis of one of the mitigation measure has been done by taking the proposal of a Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS) option as a case study.
7.1 Cost benefit analysis
The objective of the cost- benefit analysis as to identify and quantify the economic benefits and costs associated with the project (implementation of monorail corridor in Thiruvananthapuram) along the study stretch, in order to select the optimum solution along with the economic viability in terms of its likely investment return potential. The cost - benefit analysis is carried out by using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) technique to obtain the Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR %) and Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) for the proposed investments linked with the project.
7.2 Estimation of Costs
The project cost stream comprises of capital cost, operation cost and maintenance cost. As per the study of NATPAC, the project cost is taken as Rs. 5098 Crores and operation & maintenance cost (O & M cost) is taken as 100 Crores /annum. This cost has been converted to economic price by applying a factor of 0.85.
7.3 Estimation of Benefits
Introduction of monorail will result in reduction in number of private vehicles, air pollution and increased speed of road-based vehicles. This, in turn, will result in significant social benefits due to reduction in fuel consumption, vehicle operating cost and travel time of passengers. The traffic on the monorail is expected to shift from buses, auto rickshaw, car and two wheelers. The total savings due to reduction in private vehicle usage (reduced fuel loss and emission along the study stretch) has been estimated as Rs. 64 crores in the year 2018 towards the fuel consumption and emission.
With the introduction of monorail, there will be reduction in traffic congestion on the roads and correspondingly, there will be saving in time of commuters travelling by various modes of road transport. Similarly, monorail system itself being faster than conventional road transport modes, will also lead to considerable saving in time of commuters travelling on monorail. With the implementation of the project, the annual passenger time savings are estimated at Rs 38 Crores for the year 2018.
7.4 Results of cost benefit analysis
The cost and benefit streams for 30-year period in the economic prices have been worked out. In the analysis, the 'with project' alternative of providing monorail system is compared with the base option of 'without project (Do- nothing scenario)' alternative of using the existing transport facilities. This is to arrive at the net economic benefits, which consist of reduction in vehicle operation cost and reduction in travel time. The total cost worked out on the above basis is then subtracted from the total benefits to estimate the net benefit of the project. This flow is then subjected to the process of discounting to work out the EIRR and ENPV on the project, to examine the viability of the project in economic terms. The results are given in Table 9.
Table 9 Results of Economic Analysis
Parameter Results
EIRR (%) 10%
ENPV (@ 12% discount rate) Rs 592.8
Benefit cost ratio 2.26
The benefit ratio is 2.26 which is greater than 1 which means project is feasible. The higher the BCR the better is the investment. 8. Conclusion
The total travel time costs calculated shows that the cost due to delay is the greatest for buses. The travel time cost for buses amounts to around Rs 390698/ day i.e. Rs 14 Crores per annum. The reason can be explained easily from the combined effects of
less values of value of time for buses, which may be mostly due to the socio-economic condition of the passengers, of a relatively higher occupancy than other modes and also of overall less average speed (i.e. more delays) in comparison with other travel modes in a shared carriageway. Although the ratio of numbers of cars to buses is quite high, i.e. around 4 times and the value of time is also higher, car has a travel time cost lesser than that of the bus, mainly because of the higher average speed and lesser occupancy. For two wheelers and cars, the fuel loss cost is Rs 17 Crores and Rs 14 Crores respectively, whereas for buses it is Rs 6 Crores, around 2.8 times lower than two wheelers and 2.3 times lower than cars. It is important to note that the fuel cost due to traffic congestion is subject to the fluctuations of fuel prices, taxes and/or subsidized fuel and hence constitute a major source of uncertainty in such estimations. The cost of pollution caused by buses is greater than cars and two wheelers. The emission cost of bus is Rs 20 Crores and for car and two wheeler it is Rs 7 Crores and Rs 2 Crores respectively. Combining the values of travel time costs, fuel loss costs and pollution costs provide estimates on traffic delay cost. This gives a yearly cost of about Rs 83 Crores excluding the environmental damage cost. Adding up the estimate on environmental externality cost and other pollution costs, there will be boom rise in the total traffic delay cost yearly.
The cost benefit analysis of one of the mitigational measure has been done and it has been found that benefit cost ratio is 2.26.The economic analysis of traffic delay cost will inform the policy-makers in monetary terms the actual impact of the traffic congestion and delay that the society actually bears. Also it will support further policy making processes to allocate the resources efficiently in order to control the increasing traffic demand. Starting with such economic analysis, effective traffic demand management strategies, i.e. congestion pricing, peak hour pricing, road pricing etc. can be implemented with proper planning under informed choices - the real costs of supplies and the corresponding imposing surcharge to control the growth and management of traffic demand.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to acknowledge Smt B G Sreedevi, Director, NATPAC, Sri D Robinson, Scientist - F, NATPAC, Sri P Kalaiarasan, Scientist- C and Sri Arun Chandran, Scientist- C, NATPAC for the timely support and suggestions for the smooth conduct of the study.
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