Scholarly article on topic 'A Decision Study on River Carrying Capacity of Changsha-Zhu-Tan Region'

A Decision Study on River Carrying Capacity of Changsha-Zhu-Tan Region Academic research paper on "Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries"

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{"River carrying capacity" / "Sustainable development engineering" / "Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(CZT) region ;"}

Abstract of research paper on Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, author of scientific article — Ying Zhang, Lanying Yin, Xiang Li

Abstract This paper analyses the river carrying capacity of Chang-Zhu-Tan region, with horizontal and vertical method. We used the combination of Chromatography and principal component analysis method to establish the sub-index evaluation systems of the river water, the social development, and the ecological carrying capacity. Through the analysis, we provide the basis for sustainable development engineering and some advises for government in decision making.

Academic research paper on topic "A Decision Study on River Carrying Capacity of Changsha-Zhu-Tan Region"

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Systems Engineering

Systems Engineering Procedia 1 (2011) 422-431

2011 International Conference on Risk and Engineering Management (REM)

A Decision Study on River Carrying Capacity of

Changsha-Zhu-Tan RegionError! Reference source not found.

Ying Zhang, Lanying Yin, Xiang Li

Department of Finance and Investment Management, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, 410083, China

Abstract

This paper analyses the river carrying capacity of Chang-Zhu-Tan region, with horizontal and vertical method. We used the combination of Chromatography and principal component analysis method to establish the sub-index evaluation systems of the river water, the social development, and the ecological carrying capacity. Through the analysis, we provide the basis for sustainable development engineering and some advises for government in decision making.

© 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of the Organising Committee of The International Conference of Risk and Engineering Management.

Keywords: River carrying capacity, Sustainable development engineering, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(CZT) region;

1. 1. Introduction

Rivers are an important part of natural resources. Its quality level is high correlated with the economic development. With the advance of science and technology, human efforts to the river exploration has increased and changed the original behaviour of the river ecosystem. As a result, the economic contribution for the mankind has been growing gradually. Along with the human activities, the river water has seriously contaminated. With the massive exploitation of underground water, surface subsident, forests and grasslands have been destructed. The environmental degradation has damaged the vegetation, caused vicious cycle of the river system and directly affects the people's livelihood and economic development. This condition has made the ecological security is facing unprecedented threats. More than 130 cities are in the severe of water shortage. Water shortage has become the major obstacles for urban development. Therefore, river carrying capacity of the urban has a great significance impact for the cities' development.

In 1920s, after Burgess and Park proposed the concept of carrying capacity, many researchers then applied this concept in different fields such as ecology science, resources science, demography and other fields, and derived different concepts, such as environmental carrying capacity, water capacity, the river carrying capacity and so on

This research work was supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (No. 70921001) "Research on Uncertain Decision Theory and Application under Complex Environment", also was supported by Hunan Soft Science Key Project (No.2008ZK2016) " the Sustainable Development Capability Evaluation and Policy Research based on the Ecological Environment of the Ecological Footprint" Corresponding author. Tel.: +86-139-7316-7536 E-mail address: zhangying9898@sina.com

2211-3819 © 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of the Organising Committee of The International

Conference of Risk and Engineering Management.

doi:10.1016/j.sepro.2011.08.063

(Xu 2009, Duan 2010).

It starts with index system establishment, and choice of research methods, by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, system dynamics method, multi-objective decision method, principal component analysis and other methods, to evaluate rivers hosted regional economy, water resources and ecological environment (Xie 2011, Xu 2011, Lv 2010, Nuan 2010, Lu 2009). Based on the theory of river carrying capacity, in this paper we will use this concept for the empirical study of CZT section to evaluate the index system of river carrying capacity. Then it will be horizontally compared with the benchmark of CZT river carrying capacity, then analyze the development trends in CZT region from 2002-2008. Finally, we will also provide some advices for the sustainable development proposed according to the empirical result.

2. Establishment of Index System from River Carrying Capacity

2.1. State of River Environment in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Region

The region of Chang-Zhu-Tan have only one water source, which is Xiangjiang River, and its major contributions are water sources, and a small proportion of underground water. At present, the water flow of Xiang Jiang River is 142 second/cubic meters. In order to meet the urban water needed, in the year 2020, the rivers capacity must be reached for more than 330 cubic meters. In 2008, the average of Changsha's water needed for a person was 1240 cubic meters, while Xiangtan was 1282 cubic meters at the same time. The amounts are smaller than the average of Hunan's water needed. The amount for Zhuzhou is greater than the average, which is 2513 cubic meters. Hunan has abundant water resources without shortage of water (He 2010). The water quality has become worse since the enterprise and the resident discharge the sewerage to the Xiang Jiang River directly, and it has polluted Xiang Jiang River with high density of COD which content the ammonia nitrogen and E. coli. In the condition of the lower reaches to Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan region, it begins to appear water shortage situation.

2.2. Selection of the River Carrying Capacity

River carrying capacity takes the river of specific areas as an organism. The capacity and the quality of water (river) have become a comprehensive index to carry the great population and the economic. Besides that, they also have embodied the relationship between the river and the movement of social economic. Therefore, choosing the right index of river carrying capacity becomes the key point of quantitative analysis for river carrying capacity (Wang 2009). The theory of sustainable development shows that the regional sustainable development system has been mobilized by five sub-system: population, resource, environment, economy and society. Furthermore, the establishments of the index system for regional sustainable development, the evaluation and the forecasting of the sustainable development have adjusted the economic regional, social system, and ecosystem sustainable to go on their track. According to the river carrying capacity indicator, the design should follow the system, the scientific characteristics, the hierarchy, the variability and the dynamic principle. In order to formulate the indicator system of Chang-Zhu-Tan regional, then we combined it with the index which is related to regional sustainable development and its realization. Firstly, set up a general indicator which is river carrying. The general indicator consist three systemic structures: river water body, social-economic development, and eco-environmental system. There are two advantages of using this indicator system. First, in the traditional water source environment, it only stressed the indicator related, and then added the level of water quality to measure the river carrying like the density of COD, wastewater discharge standards and so on. Second, the social economic has appeared the function of the river carrying capacity, which is the industrial structure and the economic indicator of using water efficiently can be used to measuring the profit and loss of water resource carrying capacity. Table 1 Index system is as follows:

Table 1. Style of river carrying capacity indicators Comments:

River carrying capacity(RCC)

First indicators Using of river water(URW) Social and economic development(SED) Ecological condition(EC)

Secondary UWR PGDP VC

indicators ESW GPGDP DCOD

WCC TP RWD

QC NPG RST

CWQ WE

UWR(%): utilization factor of water resources VC(%): vegetation coverage GPGDP(%): growth of per capita GDP WCC(m3/person): water consumption per capita RWD(%): rate of the waste water discharge NPG(%): Natural population growth rate CWQ(%): changes coefficient of water quantity PPI(%): proportion of primary industry PTI(%): proportion of third industry

PGDP(yuan): per capita GDP ESW(%): exploitation of surface water DCOD(ton): discharge amount of COD TP(ten thousands): total population QC(m3/person): quantity per capita RST(%): rate of sewerage treatment in the urban area WE(yuan/m3): Using water efficiency PSI(%): proportion of secondary industry PTE(%): proportion of technology and education

2.3 . Computation of Index System Weight

Determine the value of indexes at all levels by Delphic and AHP, then compute the indexes by using MATLAB 7.0. Analyze the matrix using the consistency test. The results are as follows:

Table 2.Weights of indicators in first layer

Primary index URW SED EC

weight 0.5122 0.2423 0.2455

Table 3. Weights of indicators in second layer

Index weight UWR ESW WCC QC CVW RVC DCOD RWD RST

0.375 0.321 0.134 0.106 0.064 0.138 0.198 0.357 0.308

Index weight PGDP GPGDP TP NPG WE PPI PSI PTI PTE

0.206 0.199 0.077 0.072 0.113 0.076 0.065 0.066 0.126

Error! Reference source not found. 3. Computing of River Carrying Capacity in CZT Region

The aggregate index of river carrying capacity is computed by combination of AHP and PCA. The advantages

are: first, this model combines the subjectivity of AHP with the objectivity of PCA, and the assessment is more objective and reasonable. Second, embody the preference of decision makers by weighting the index secondarily, the more concrete improvement is established so as to provide a dependable basis for the decision making.

(1) Standardization of data. Process the data non-dimensionally based on the instructed index system, By is the forward parameter. The bigger value of forward parameter, then the better the results. Non-dimensional method is as follows:

A = (ij ............................................................(1)

max( i, j )

where Ai is the handled standard value, Bij is the initial data, Bmax(ij)is the maximum value of the ith index, when Bij is contrary index, it uses non-dimensional method by cleaning standard value, river carrying capacity produces bigger negative benefit with bigger index value, and visa versa. The formula is:

Bmin( j )

The result of non-dimensional handling is a positive number in spite of forward index or negative index, the ideal value is 1, The greater the numerical value is, then it says that this index is better, calculated believable results can be made by using dimensionless method. (2) Computing related matrix (R) of (A )nn , then calculate the flag value,

\ >- ¿2 >---->- A ,and jUyfo '"jU

Z (aki - ar)(

~ar ) 2(akj ~aj )

' k=1 k=1

(3) Cumulated variance contribution of flag value

E = ......................................................

Among them, £>85«%

(4) Weight standardization index, X} = d}, j = 1,2, • • •, n ......

/3- is weight factor of the jth, a ■ is standard value of the initial index.

(5) Extract principal components with the number of m,

yk=Yjt£kjxj>k = l>2>'->m ..................................................................(6)

(6) Establish a weighted PCA comprehensive evaluation model, Scoring goals are rivers carrying, ecological environment, social economy, as follows,

A1 (ai, a2, a3, a4, a5 ) , A2 (a6 , a7 , a8, a9 ) , A3 (ai0 , ai1, ai2 , ai3 , ai4 , ai5 , ai6 , ai7 , ai8 ) ,

Include the weight vectors, y = (yv y2,y3) ,The eigenvectors are as follows: Ulp = {upi,up2,up3,up4,up5) ,

UP = i^p 6 , up 7 , up 8 , uP 9 ) ,

UP = i^Pi0 , upi2 , upi3 , upi4 , upi5 , upi6, upi7 , upi8 )

Then the score of pth principle component is as follows:

5 9 18

Fp =/l Z upjaj Z upjaj Z upjaj (7) j=l j=6 j=10 ---------------

Namely for: Fp = Z,compute the weight of principle component:

= , • • •, com ) , COp is the variance contribution of X ,at last, compute the total score is as follows:

F = Z®PI^rAU^ ----------------------------------------------------------(8)

p=i n=i

Comprehensive value F reflects the size of Carrying capacity.

4. Empirical Research of River Carrying Capacity

4.1. Data Resources

The data collected from "the 2009 Changsha statistical yearbook", "2009 Zhuzhou statistical yearbook", "2009 Xiangtan statistical yearbook", 2008 Hunan province water resources report, and from 2002 to 2009 yearbooks of three cities statistical water resources reports and environmental sustainable report.

Table 4. Values of indicators in 2008

Indicators( weights) Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan Average value Of Hunan province

Utilization of River water UWR(%) 46 24 51 20

resource ESW(%) 52 58 54 54

WCC(m3/person) 549 610 649 379

QC(m3/person) 1240 2513 1282 2337

CWQ(%) 83 94 101 95

PGDP(yuan) 45765 24563 23672 17521

GPGDP(%) 14 13.4 13.8 14.9

TP(ten thousands) 642 381.2 293.99 463.2

Economic and social NPG(%) 5.09 7.5 4.54 5.4

development WE(yuan/m3) 79.4 37.5 34.4 35.1

PPI(%) 5.7 12.1 14.2 18

PSI(%) 52.2 54.6 50.6 44.2

PTI(%) 42.1 33.3 35.2 37.8

PTE(% 0.08 0.16 0.18 0.37

ECIGDP(%) 53.6 59.7 42.65 55.9

VC(%) 69134 66242 62904 63186

Ecological condition DCOD(ton) 88.1 93.6 93 92.1

RWD(%) 70.9 68.5 66.3 52.0

RST(%) 46 24 51 20

4.2 .Data Processing

Table 4 Data for correlation coefficient matrix that has been standardized is as follows:

1 -0.57 -0.64 -0.76 -0.7 0.56 -0.34 0.22 0.74 0.43 0.48 -0.39 0.32 -0.66 -0.81 -0.17 -0.4 0.61

-0.57 1 -0.24 0.01 0.42 0.53 -0.51 0.43 -0.82 -0.62 -0.52 -0.35 -0.88 0.09 0.47 0.16 0.79 0.05

-0.64 -0.24 1 0.95 -0.08 -0.36 0.94 -0.46 0.01 -0.13 -0.29 0.9 0.32 0.83 0.37 0.29 -0.1 -0.9

-0.76 0.01 0.95 1 0.18 -0.62 0.85 -0.22 -0.12 -0.41 -0.55 0.9 0.02 0.94 0.37 0.49 0.2 -0.97

-0.07 0.42 -0.08 0.18 1 -0.85 -0.03 0.92 0.14 -0.93 -0.9 0.24 -0.79 0.49 -0.46 0.92 0.88 -0.37

0.56 -0.53 -0.36 -0.62 -0.85 1.00 -0.28 -0.61 0.17 0.97 0.99 -0.52 0.73 -0.81 0.01 -0.89 -0.88 0.71

-0.34 -0.51 0.94 0.85 -0.03 -0.28 1.00 -0.37 -0.35 -0.06 -0.23 0.96 0.45 0.78 0.04 0.37 -0.22 -0.87

0.22 0.43 -0.46 -0.22 0.92 -0.61 -0.37 1.00 0.17 -0.77 -0.68 -0.12 -0.80 0.11 -0.59 0.71 0.81 0.02

0.74 -0.82 0.01 -0.12 0.14 0.17 0.35 0.17 1.00 0.17 0.12 0.34 0.45 0.01 -0.87 0.30 -0.34 -0.08

0.43 -0.62 -0.13 -0.41 -0.93 0.97 -0.06 -0.77 0.17 1.00 0.99 -0.32 0.85 -0.65 0.11 -0.87 -0.96 0.53

0.48 -0.52 -0.29 -0.55 -0.90 0.99 -0.23 -0.68 0.12 0.99 1.00 -0.48 0.76 -0.77 0.09 -0.91 -0.90 0.66

-0.39 -0.35 0.90 0.90 0.24 -0.52 0.96 -0.12 0.34 -0.32 -0.48 1.00 0.21 0.90 -0.05 0.60 0.04 -0.95

0.32 -0.88 0.32 0.02 -0.79 0.73 0.45 -0.80 0.45 0.85 0.76 0.21 1.00 -0.21 -0.01 -0.54 -0.97 0.05

-0.66 0.09 0.83 0.94 0.49 -0.81 0.78 0.11 0.01 -0.65 -0.77 0.90 -0.21 1.00 0.13 0.75 0.44 -0.99

-0.81 0.47 0.37 0.37 -0.46 0.01 0.04 -0.59 -0.87 0.11 0.09 -0.05 -0.01 0.13 1.00 -0.44 -0.03 -0.13

-0.17 0.16 0.29 0.49 0.92 -0.89 0.37 0.71 0.30 -0.87 -0.91 0.60 -0.54 0.75 -0.44 1.00 0.72 -0.68

-0.40 0.79 -0.10 0.20 0.88 -0.88 -0.22 0.81 -0.34 -0.96 -0.90 0.04 -0.97 0.44 -0.03 0.72 1.00 -0.28

0.61 0.05 -0.90 -0.97 -0.37 0.71 -0.87 0.02 -0.08 0.53 0.66 -0.95 0.05 -0.99 -0.13 -0.68 -0.28 1.00

Through calculating flag value and eigenvector of related matrix by using MaKeWei analysis system, in the terms of E > 90%, we have to determine three principal components, and find out the eigenvectors corresponding to the calculation results. The results are as follows.

Table 5. Eigen-value and eigenvector

Flag value 8.8 5.1 2.6

Variance contribution 49% 28% 14%

Accumulation contribution 49 % 77% 91%

F = ^T/? x n , where con is the weight of nth component, J3i is the weight of index classes,

n=1 i=l

jUt is the corresponding characteristic vector value. xt is the standardization index vector. The total score F is the

product from each of main components of scoring and contribution indigestion : f _ co ^ f. . Calculate the F

of average river carrying capacity from Changsha, Zhuzhou, Xiangtan, Hunan province respectively. Then sort then based on the calculating results.

Table 6. Results of comprehensive evaluation of RCCI

City Fi F2 F3 F sorting

Changsha 0.0108 -0.1153 0.0352 -0.0221 4

Zhuzhou 0.1584 -0.1121 -0.0514 0.0390 2

Xiangtan 0.0804 -0.1419 0.0691 0.0093 3

Hunan province 0.2066 -0.0442 -0.0453 0.0825 1

4.3. Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Carrying Capacity Transverse Conclusion Analysis in 2008

(1) F(Hunan Province)>F(Zhuzhou)>F(Xiangtan)>F(Changsha), The score of F is higher then the river carrying capacity of this area is larger. According to the classification, Hunan and Zhuzhou are defined as good carrying zone, Xiangtan as bearing zone, and Changsha as overload area. The river carrying capacity of the three cities are all bellow the average level of Hunan province. According to table 5, among the cities, the development potential of Zhuzhou is largest. the city's carrying pressure is minimum.

(2) The carrying pressure of Changsha is large. The comprehensive value is small. Because of high development of Chansha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan region, both economic strength and the technology are in remarkable progress, per capita GDP and GDP keep rapid development.With intensive population and improving of people's living standard, water consumption per capita is increasing at the same time, pollutants increase too.The utilization of water resources is low, the Xiangjiang river water quality are worsening, waste is serious, to Chang-Zhu-Tan area, especially Changsha and Xiangtan, water resources management level should be enhanced urgently.

(3) The river carrying capacity represents weakening trend from t south to north of the middle and lower reaches of Xiangjiang river, because of uneven rainfall, drought and flood disasters are easy to appear, Rivers carrying capacity will hinder development of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan regional.

4.4 . Rivers Carrying capacity Development Trend Analysis in CZT Area

In 2002-2008, this paper uses principal component and AHP method based on quantitative analysis of river carrying capacity, Zhuzhou river's carrying capacity index is as shown in figure 1.

Trend of river carrying capacity

Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan Unit:0.01

Fig. 1 .Trends of RCCI of Chang-Zhu-Tan region

From Fig. 1, we can find that from 2002 to 2008, Changsha's carrying capacity is always in the overload of the interval, Zhuzhou is full of water, and Xiangtan is in bearing zone.

Throughout the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan rivers carrying capacity trends, In 2002, the river of CZT area was in a low capacity, Mainly water use-efficiency was low, the sewagetreatment rate was not high, Changsha's water supply and demand was in tension. In 2004, the river carrying capacity of Changsha declined obviously, with water resource demand increasing that year, rivers carrying capacity was under increasing pressure. In 2006, the Changsha river capacity increased, and then reduced in 2008.

In 2006, Changsha's rivers carrying capacity has risen, with the adjustment of industrial structure, the pressure of river carrying capacity in 2008 presented weakening trend.

Carrying capacity of Xiangtan and Zhuzhou is higher, and the trend is gentle. Xiangtan is the scope of carrying, within the water resource demand changing quite gently, in 2007 and 2008 rivers carrying capacity rebounded to above 0.08. The total water resources of Zhuzhou have been relatively rich, with the rivers capacity above 0.1. In 2007and 2008 the capacity reaches to 0.2. Because Zhuzhou is in the upstream of Chang-Zhu-Tan segment, Population pressure is small, industry develops finally, but pollution is serious. In river water quality supervision and water distribution and supply in economic and social development all play a crucial role, so rivers Carrying capacity must be further developed.

5. Suggestions

Through transverse comparison of river carrying capacity index in 2008 and index changing trends analysis from 2002 to 2008,It reveals Chang-Zhu-Tan district sustainable development status and influenced factors. According to the empirical analysis, this paper proposes short-term and long-term strategy and suggestions:

(1) Short-term basin water shortage period will use three methods such as reservoir water diversion, water restriction and pollution discharging restriction, or diversion from the second source of water supply from the city. Changsha chooses Liuyang river as the second water resource, and at the same time, Zhuzhou chooses the Guangzhuang reservoir, Then Xiangtan chooses Shuifumiao as the second water supply. According to Xiangjiang's water resource characters in different time, the period started from the flood season and ended in the next year, which are respectively in July, August, September, October, November, December, January and February, it has solved the water shortage problem, and the environment pollution problem arise as a contingency plan for the

second water supply protection. The social economic development of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan can not be in stagnation only because of the river carrying capacity. Following to the development of economy and in the terms of the highest carrying capacity, hopefully Chang-Zhu-Tan region could be the centre of economic, social, population, and natural resources.

(2) Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan is taken as experimental plot of two-type society, and according to the status of CZT development, the paper proposes some long-term mechanism of CZT for sustainable development:

© Consummating water price adjustment mechanism, Price regulation make resources to obtain reasonable configuration, is naturally market mechanism formed by the sustainable development. Consummate water price system, enlarge the sewage disposal pollutants management, accelerate pollution-discharge right trade advancement, System of emission trade makes pollution-discharge right with low cost level, Guide the interest subjects to save water, make the sustainable development develop automatically.

® Develop circular economy of urban agglomeration. Handling the population, resources and environmental relationship is the key in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban sustainable development engineering, Recycle economy mode will penetrate extensively into industry, agriculture, and other fields, then set up a number of circular economy with enterprises and park, construct circular chain and perfect relevant policy system(Xiao 2009).

® Pay attention to promote the sustainable development engineering. Prepare well for the water storage projects, insist on irrigation by collecting the rainwater from April to September which are full of rainfall, construct some water storages using for irrigation; Develop an efficient agriculture, primarily set up agricultural zone, develop sightseeing agriculture, ecological agriculture, and leisure agriculture.

® Strengthen the ecological compensation system according to the corresponding of exploration, earnings, and compensation principles. Improve the ecological compensation policy: Refine compensation standard, consider the water quality standards, regulate the macroeconomic according to the zone; Implement subsidy forms such as grain, cash and so on. Strengthen the ecological protection legislation to provide legal basis for ecological compensation mechanism.

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