Research on Risk Management of Railway Engineering Construction Academic research paper on "Civil engineering"

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Systems Engineering Procedía 1 (2011) 174-180

2011 International Conference on Risk and Engineering Management (REM)

Research on Risk Management of Railway Engineering

Construction

WANG Lina,LI Yaqib,WANG Enmaoa

aSchool of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070,China b Tianjin Railway Vocational Technical Colleage,Tianjin 300240,China

Abstract

Railroad engineering has long construction cycle, huge investment and multitudinous risk factors in construction process of railroad engineering. It's necessary to improve the level of railroad engineering risk management. The paper describes a simple and effective risk management in an actual project: uses the fault tree to indentify the risk of JIBAO Additional second-line engineering, carries on the appraisal with the analytic hierarchy process, points out the key risks that should be concerned and the specific response.

Keywords: Railway Engineering; Construction Risk; Risk Response

The railway engineering is a huge system work, compared with general industrial and civil construction, which has the characteristics as follow: first of all, railway engineering is broad and has long construction cycle and huge investment, second ,it has large scale, the construction mileage is from dozens of kilometers to thousands of kilometers, involving construction area usually come across several provinces and cities, plus the linear distribution ,which decides the construction of liquidity, the third, there is more kinds of railway engineering projects, usually includes roadbed, rail, tunnels, bridges, station equipment, communications, signal, maintenance, electric power, electrification, water supply and drainage, vehicles, building and others more than 10 kinds of engineering, thus, engineering construction required collaboration between several units and government departments; the fourth, the railway engineering is open-air construction, the time and route of construction is long, the climate, geology hydrological conditions and social economic and humanistic environment of different areas is different. Therefore, there are multitudinous risks factors in construction process of railway engineering, such as the risks of decision-making, design, construction, technology, quality, investment, natural disaster, force majeure and so on, which nearly cover the whole process. Consequently, it is necessary to research the risk in process of railway engineering construction, this article starting from the actual engineering perspective, analysis the risks of JIBAO additional second-line engineering, pointed out the risk should be focus on and puts forward the concrete measures.

1. Project overview

JIBAO additional second-line engineering of Jing-Bao line belongs to west-middle section of Jing-Bao channel, which is basic parallel layout along Jing-Bao line Jining to Baotou section, east up Wulanchabu city of Neimenggu autonomous region, west to Baotou and pass by Huhehaote. The full-length is 307.955 km, in which including new line of 263.213 km, and transform existing line of 44.742 km. JBZH - six section is located in Chasuqi-Baotou, starting and ending mileage of civil

2211-3819 © 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of the Organising Committee of The International

Conference of Risk and Engineering Management.

doi:10.1016/j.sepro.2011.08.029

comprehensive engineering is DK759+800-K22+850 = DK824+669, length of the main is 56 km. starting and ending mileage of beam fabrication and track laying is DK705+047-K22+850 = DK824+669, length of the main is113 km.

Content of the contract mainly includes: change and remove road, cut and dig root, transitive and move engineering, the land expropriation (the project which influence to engineering construction need to move) etc, subgrade, bridge (including precast bridge), track(main Line ballasted track, a main hub in Baotou), station, housing construction, station building, equipment engineering, comprehensive

The total contract cost is 24.8 million Yuan. The total construction period is 32 months, including construction period 24 months, commissioning 8 months.

2. Risk identification

Identify sources of risk and risk occurs condition of the project is the first step of risk management. Risk factors involved in the project can be divided into different kinds from different point of view:(1) according to the different participants, risk of the project can be divided into: investors risk (such as poor pay ability, changing the targets of the project, not timely payment for work, and non-intervention programs project, etc),contractor risk(such as poor technical skills, mismanagement, can't achieve the main goals of railway projects, relations of contractors and subcontractors and so on), material supplier risk(such as delay supply project materials, the materials quality, specifications, models and so on of the supplied materials cannot meet the requirements of the project, etc), project managers risk(such as poor management capability, issued error instructions and assignment and so on), government risk(such as cannot act according to regulations, artificial up barriers and non-intervention programs project, etc), other project stakeholders risk (such as resettlement in the range of railway engineering, unreasonable demands on the project and other non-cooperate with project behavior).(2) It can be divided into quality risk, period risk, cost risk, environmental risks, safety risk, and civilized construction risk and so on according to the risk to the influence of project goals.

JIBAO additional second-line engineering has long construction cycle, involving a wide range, has complex technology and engineering environment. Consequently, potential risks of various complex cross each other. Used the fault tree to identify the risk of JIBAO additional second-line engineering as shown in Figure 1 .The losses of JIBAO additional second-line engineering is the loss of project targets, due to a variety of the project targets, analysis the risk factors which result the loss start from different project targets.

_ The losses of JIBAO Additional second-line engineering A

f—s f quality \ f ^

p^ loss B2 PR

—[design drawings can't be supplied on time C11

acquisition and resettlement cannot be completed on schedule C12

—[impact of climate environment such as winter and rainy C13

insufficient supply or damage of resources risk C14

-flocal administrative interference C15

—period nervous C2T"

—[substandard quality of construction materials C22

-|weak implementation and the lower capacity of supervision engineerC23

—[lack of technical management labor C24

—[bad natural conditions and difficult construction C25

overruns

—[cost overruns about land expropriation and resettlement C31

—price change of personnel, materials and mechanical C32

—[non-rigorous and inadequate implementation of contract C33

—poor technical measures and construction management C34

|more existing construction and mutual interference serious C41 —ilack of education for workers C42

—[shortage of security measures C43

—[environmental protection measures imperfect ,weak implementation and so on C51

Fig. 1. Risk fault tree of the JIBAO Additional second-line engineering

The fault tree is composed of nodes and connections in Figure 1, the node Cij is expressed basic events that cause project specific target loss Bi occur. Logic or gate [OR] is expressed that output events could be occurred as long as one or more incident of input events occurred.

3. Risk estimation and evaluation

According to the risk factors analyzed, determine the incidence of various risk factors with subjective probability method, subjective probability evaluation standard of risk factors happen is shown in Table 1, the results of the specific evaluation of risk factors is shown in Table 7.

Table 1. Subjective probability grades of risk factors evaluation

Fuzzy evaluation of risk factors happened largest larger medium small smaller

the incidence of risk factors 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

Using AHP to evaluate the impact of risk factors to project goals. According to the identified risk factors fault tree, sent questionnaire to experts, synthetically estimate the judgments of risk factors impact from all experts and gives the judgment matrix as shown in Table 2~6.

Table 2.A- B judgment matrix

A Bi B2 B3 B4 B5 Eigenvector WB Consistency inspection

Bi 1 1 3 1 7 0.284 8 Largest eigenvalue

B2 1 1 3 1 7 0.284 8 X =5.07 max

B3 1/3 1/3 1 1/3 5 0.1106 C/=0.02

B4 1 1 3 1 7 0.284 8 CR =0.016<0.1

B5 1/7 1/7 1/5 1/7 1 0.034 9

Table 3. Bj- Cj judgment matrix

Bi C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 Eigenvector WCj Consistency inspection

C11 1 15 3 5 0.369 8 Largest eigenvalue

C12 1 15 3 3 0.333 9 Amax =5.31

Ci3 1/5 1/5 1 1/3 3 0.081 9 C/=0.08

C14 1/3 1/3 3 1 3 0.155 9 CR =0.069<0.1

C15 1/5 1/3 1/3 1/3 1 0.058 5

Table 4. B2- C2 judgment matrix

B2 C21 C22 C23 C24 C25 Eigenvector WC2 Consistency inspection

C21 1 1/7 1/3 1/3 1/5 0.045 3 Largest eigenvalue

C22 7 1 5 5 3 0.501 1 A =5.13 max

C23 3 1/5 1 1 1/3 0.103 8 C/=0.03

C24 3 1/5 1 1 1/3 0.103 8 CR =0.028<0.1

C25 5 1/3 3 3 1 0.246 1

Table 5. B3- C3 judgment matrix

B3 C31 C32 C33 C34 Eigenvector WC3 Consistency inspection

C31 1 1/5 1/3 1/5 0.088 4 Largest eigenvalue

C32 5 1 5 1 0.399 2 A =4.22 max

C33 3 1/5 1 1/3 0.1520 C/=0.07

C34 5 1 3 1 0.360 4 CR =0.08<0.1

Table 6. B4- C4judgment matrix

Eigenvector WC4

Consistency inspection

C41 C42 C43

1/5 1/3

0.637 0 0.104 7 0.258 3

Largest eigenvalue

^ =3 038

C/=0.019 CR =0.03<0.1

Calculate the influence W of project total goal on risk factors by the foregoing judgment matrix, which is shown in Table 7.

The overall degree of risk is the product between the risk factors probability and the influence values, the overall project risk evaluation standards is shown in Table 8. The project is a high-risk

project; it should make a special management to risk, focus on analysis and monitoring to the risks which have great impact on the project in the implementation process of project.

Table 7. Risk calculate

risk factors Probability Pij influence to the overall target of project Wij risk degree

design drawings can't be supplied on time C¡¡ 0.8 0.105 3 0.084

land acquisition and resettlement cannot be completed on schedule C12 0.8 0.095 1 0.076

impact of climate environment such as winter and rainy C13 0.6 0.023 3 0.014

insufficient supply or damage of resources risk C14 0.6 0.044 4 0.027

local administrative interference C15 0.4 0.016 7 0.007

period nervous C21 1 0.012 9 0.013

substandard quality of construction materials C22 0.8 0.142 7 0.114

weak implementation and the lower capacity of supervision engineerC23 0.6 0.029 6 0.018

lack of technical management laborC24 0.4 0.029 6 0.012

bad natural conditions and difficult construction C25 0.8 0.070 1 0.056

cost overruns about land expropriation and resettlement C31 1 0.009 8 0.010

price change of personnel, materials and mechanical C32 0.6 0.044 1 0.026

non-rigorous and inadequate implementation of contract C33 0.4 0.016 8 0.007

poor technical measures and construction management C34 0.6 0.039 9 0.024

more existing construction and mutual interference serious C41 1 0.181 4 0.181

lack of education for workers C42 0.4 0.029 8 0.012

shortage of security measures C43 0.4 0.073 6 0.029

environmental protection measures imperfect and weak implementation C51 0.4 0.034 9 0.014

project overall risk degrees: y P-W-- = 0.724

Table 8. Risk assessment standards table

risk degree range risk level

0—0.4 low risk

0.4—0.6 medium risk

0.6—0.8 high risk

0.8—1.0 higher risk

4. Risk responses

Sort of risk factors according to the influence of various risks to the project whole target, the results is shown in Figure 2.It can be seen that there are several factors which influence greater the whole project targets such as more existing construction and mutual interference serious, substandard quality of construction materials, design drawings can't be supplied on time, land acquisition and resettlement cannot be completed on schedule and bad natural conditions and difficult construction. Put forward the following countermeasures aiming at these risks:

0.02 0

Risk degree

■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■

risk Factors

C41 C22 Cil C12 C25 C43 C14 C32 C34 C23 C13

Fig. 2. Ranking of Project risk factors

1) Aiming at the actual situation of more existing construction and mutual interference serious, establish and improve the safe production responsibility system, formulate strict security guarantee system and measures, eliminate all traffic, personal injury, fire, explosion accident and major traffic accident to ensure construction safety.

2) To prevent substandard quality of construction materials, control from the following aspects: carefully reviewed before the purchase of materials, familiar with drawings, confirm the name, classification, specifications and physical and mechanical properties of all engineering materials, submits detailed material purchasing plan before construction, control procurement after validated by the quality engineer, acceptance check according to classification and partial when purchased. Steel, cement and other materials must provide the factory certificate, physical and mechanical inspection report and quality assurance, make field sampling test for each batch of purchase, set the standards storage, safekeeping venues and warehouses for all purchase materials, formulate completely management measures for special materials such as inflammable, explosive and damp metamorphism. Check regularly, purchase installment and follow using, ensure quality.

3) To prevent influenced period because of design drawings can't be supplied on time, strengthen cooperation links between the units from the beginning of the project, ensure timely communication of project information, and supervise the design units to provide drawings on time.

4) The land acquisition and resettlement work is mainly occurred in demolition for station transformation of Baotou hub, which is a economically developed city. The work range is large and it's hard to finish the land acquisition and resettlement work on time. Establish specialized agencies and formulate effective solutions for land acquisition and resettlement, try one's best to well done communication and publicity work with the local government cooperation, obtain the support of the local population as much as possible, and protect the smooth completion of land requisition demolition.

5) The project is in bad natural conditions and needs higher level of process construction. There is a long time in winter for construction in this section, the temperature is low, effective time for construction is short, it is require special handling because of bad geological conditions in part of the construction area, plus, construction process is complex and construction is difficult because of crossing state road 210, several existing lines and much special bridge structure. Draw up targeted construction design according to different situations before construction; reduce project risk from the aspects of the construction design and management.

5. Conclusion

The risk management of railroad engineering is a complicated systems engineering. Simple and effective risk management is important to improve the level of railroad engineering risk management, to reduce project's risk, to improve the construction quality and to effectively control the project cost. The paper describes a simple and effective risk management: uses the fault tree to identify the risk of railroad engineering, carries on the appraisal with the analytic hierarchy process. It's proved that the risk management is a practical method in the construction phase of railroad engineering.

References

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